Newt Gingrich passed on a serious campaign in Michigan, figuring Mitt Romney had his home state in the bag.
But the stubbornly lingering not-Romney vote turned out to be as intense here as it has been in other states. The absence of Gingrich on the campaign trail here has left Romney in a head-to-head race with Rick Satorum. (I know, there’s still Ron Paul. But he’s going to get his votes regardless of how many candidates are on the ballot).
That means the hard conservative vote that Santorum and Gingrich — and for awhile Perry and Bachmann — have been splitting, is now unified behind Santorum. That will make it harder for Romney to score a victory with the 30 to 40 percent of the vote he has been pulling.
A stronger effort by Gingrich would have helped Romney. But Gingrich is likely helping himself by allowing Santorum to keep Romney well occupied in Michigan, instead of spending time and money in the Super Tuesday states.
Gingrich is focusing on Super Tuesday, and may surge yet again if Santorum takes down Romney in Michigan.
That’s a more likely scenario now that the state Democratic Party has released its members to vote in the primary here. Although Obama is on the ballot, Democratic delegates won’t be picked until the May caucuses.
So Democrats are free to meddle on the Republican side of the ballot, and you can bet they will try to embarass the Republican establishment by voting for either Santorum or Paul.
Romney is carpet bombing Santorum with negative ads, and he has the organization to get out his votes next Tuesday. But a Michigan victory for Romney isn’t the sure thing it should have been.
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