With less than 24-hours before the polls open in Michigan, the GOP primary picture is no clearer than it was two weeks ago. Both Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney have added appearances Monday and Tuesday, suggesting their internal polls tell them Michigan is still very much up for grabs.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Romney had appeared to be gaining a tiny bit of momentum going into the weekend, with polls finally showing him atop the race here, although by slim margins. Two polls out this morning from national outfits put Romney at 2 and 4 points in the lead over Rick Santorum, still within the margin of error.
But the poll I’m most interested in is from Steve Mitchell, a veteran Michigan pollster with an excellent track record. The last two Mitchell polls had Romney in the lead by 2 and 4 points respectively, and suggested a trend line in the Michigan native’s favor.
Last night’s poll, however, went south for Romney, putting former Pennsylvania Sen. Santorum back in the lead by 2 points, 37-35.
Mitchell says Romney is losing support in nearly every category. His analaysis is that Santorum has managed to convince voters that he is a fiscal conservative as well as a social conservative, making him the whole package in the minds of those Republicans suspicious of Romney’s positions on social issues.
This poll, too, is within the margin of error. Tomorrow is likely to produce a very narrow victory for one candidate or the other.
Given the closeness of the race, the opportunity for Democratic cross-over voters to spoil the election is greater. The drum beat is louder for Democrats to vote on the Repulbican side for Santorum, on the hope that he’ll be the weakest challenge to President Barack Obama in the fall.
If Romney fails to win his native state, look for him to fall back on the Democratic spoilers explanation.
Santorum will declare victory even if he loses in Michigan, as long as he keeps it close, because this was a state Romney was supposed to win easily.
Mitchell is back in the field later today and will have updated numbers this evening.
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