Romney and the OC

Just like former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum with El Paso County in Colorado, a single county is making up the margin of victory, and likely, the state race.

While it’s too close to call, here’s something to take a look at.

With 51% of the precincts reporting, Mitt Romney owns a 20,410 vote lead (per NBC).

Refreshing Oakland County’s election results page, Mitt Romney owns the OC by 16,500 votes.  And that lead has been consistently growing with every precinct that reports in.  There’s really no reason Santorum will pick up precincts en masse in the OC.  He does better outside the county, with folks in Macomb County, a place where Rick is depending on volume support.

As the election returns continue with smaller counties reporting, Mitt Romney’s lead depends on the ‘burbs.  The good news for Romney is that his lead is starting to solidify with outside county counts, and there’s fewer people to make up the difference.

So while no one’s calling the race for Mitt, it’s looking like he’s going to win, because Rick has to have a lot of help from outside counties.  Measure that with low participation, and the OC will give Mitt the victory.

Arizona’s already called for Mitt, so he’ll win Arizona and the narrative of tonight.

Last note:  If Newt Gingrich had campaigned in Michigan, Rick could’ve won the state, because it would’ve influenced Mitt’s lead in Oakland County.  Newt’s actual inaction produced the result you see tonight.

So let that sink in for a moment.

Mako out.