Michigan is not in play this year, most experts agree, despite a Fox 2 News Poll conducted by Foster McCollum White that puts Romney-Obama in a dead heat, 47-47 percent.
Neither campaign’s principals have been here in weeks. Neither campaign is spending money on ads here. That, says veteran MIpollster and MIView contributor Steve Mitchell, is proof that the campaigns’ internal polls indicate that Michigan’s not worth Mitt Romney diverting money to contest and Barack Obama isn’t so worried that he needs to spend money to defend it.
Though Obama no longer holds the double-digit leads of this pre-debate summer when Obamedia carpet-bombed Romney with articles about his wealth and tax returns, the incumbent was still found holding a significant 52-46 lead after the second debate, according to a Freep poll
But let me throw in a wild card and suggest that perhaps the numbers have never been right. I call it the MCRI effect.
The Michigan Civil Rights Initiative of 2006, banning racial preferences in Michigan hiring and admissions, was a sure loser before Election Day.
A Freep poll conducted in October found MCRI losing, 41-44 percent. A Detroit News poll put the gap at 50-41 pro-MCRI. On Election Day, the polls were wrong. MCRI won in a landslide, 58-42, defying every poll taken previously.
“The entire polling process highlighted an ongoing debate about the scientific value of modern phone polling on questions of race or controversial social issues where the polled members of the public may be ‘embarrassed’ by social desirability bias to give a truthful response about their intended vote for fear that they will be identified,” concludes Wiki.
Is there a social desirability bias in Obama’s numbers? America is still proud that it exorcised its racial demons by electing a black president. But he has been a disaster in the Oval Office - divisive, partisan, arrogant, incompetent. Is America polling its pride, only to vote its real intent on Election Day? Will Romney win not only Michigan, but a national landslide?
Just a thought.