The Oscar goes to ... 'The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo'?

And the Oscar this year will go to… “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”

Of course, I haven’t actually seen the film yet. No one has. It’s doubtful it’s even finished. But with no movie coming out of Toronto with universal hallelujahs, “Girl” is suddenly looking very strong.

OK, from what I can tell, “The Artist” did leave Toronto with a distinct glow about it. But it’s a silent, black-and-white French film starring wonderful actors who are unknown in the States. As much as I and others adored it, it’s a stretch.

So, back to “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.” It doesn’t come out until late December and so far it’s not generating a whole lot of buzz. But here’s what it has going for it:

a) It’s directed by David Fincher, who a lot of people (not me) think directed last year’s best film, “The Social Network.”

b) It’s going to be huge, as the book it’s based on was/is probably the biggest international sensation of the past decade (setting aside Potter and Twilight).

c) Even though it will be commercial, the story also has enough edge to be interesting and arty enough for Oscar to take it seriously.

Now here’s what’s going against it: “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.”

The Swedish version, that is, which was widely seen here, especially by film types, and featured a tour de force performance by Noomi Rapace that’s going to be hard to top, much less equal. The whole thing may lie on the slender shoulders of comparative unknown Rooney Mara, who takes over the role of Lisbeth Salander in Fincher’s version.

Still, for now my money’s on “Girl.” Until something better comes along, I change my mind or “The Artist” picks up steam.